After the Bundestag elections: How powerful will the CDU and AfD become?
The Germans have voted. ZU Professor Joachim Behnke analyzes the result for us. What could happen now?
Prof. Behnke, how do you assess the outcome of this year's Bundestag elections?
Joachim Behnke: First of all, I take a neutral view of the result - it reflects the will of the voters. However, this constellation presents a problematic situation, as there is only one realistic coalition option. The CDU/CSU and the SPD are forced to enter into this coalition. In the past, there were always alternatives, which created scope for negotiations. This time, however, that is not the case, which is of course not unproblematic.
What do you think is the reason for the increase in votes for DIE LINKE?
Behnke: It really is a remarkable phenomenon. It was the only real change in the last five to six weeks. Neither the CDU/CSU, SPD nor the Greens have seen any significant changes, and the FDP has remained at 4.5%. The LEFT, on the other hand, saw an upward trend, which probably has to do with the vote between the CDU/CSU and the AfD. The LINKE's mobilization was successful, and their social media appearances, especially by Heidi Reichinnek, have contributed to them suddenly being the most popular party among the under-30s. This shift from the Greens to the LINKE among young voters shows that the LINKE is perceived as a strong counterpart to the AfD and the CDU/CSU.
The SPD, on the other hand, has performed historically poorly. What are the main reasons for this?
Behnke: The candidate was certainly a key factor. It was clear to many that Olaf Scholz was not the best candidate and was extremely unpopular - largely wrongly in my view. He achieved a lot, but this was often underestimated and not recognized. In the end, he was simply no longer marketable. Of course, one wonders why someone like Boris Pistorius, who is very popular, was not put forward. I am sure that the SPD would have done better with Pistorius. This is reminiscent of the Greens in 2021, who would probably have done better with Habeck than with Baerbock. These are strategic mistakes that happen again and again. However, I don't see a structural problem for the SPD, as it depends heavily on the individual. However, the SPD's voter base is tending to decline, as it tends to have older core voters. The SPD needs to focus more on classic social democratic policies again in order to win back its traditional voters.
What coalition options do you see for the upcoming government formation?
Behnke: Basically only one: a black-red coalition. A coalition with the Greens would theoretically be possible, but oversized coalitions that are not necessary hardly ever happen. Normally we talk about a "minimal winning coalition", which means that you only have as many partners on board as necessary. A black-blue coalition, i.e. a collaboration between the CDU and the AfD, is definitely ruled out, at least under Friedrich Merz. Even someone like Jens Spahn, who has greater overlaps with the AfD in terms of content, would not dare to do so because 80 to 90% of CDU voters do not want that. A coalition with the AfD would be a self-defeating maneuver by the CDU.
The AFD has now achieved its best result ever. How much power will it have now?
Behnke: It won't have much power in the Bundestag for the time being. Because nobody wants to form a coalition with them. It may be more problematic in the Bundesrat, as the AfD is likely to become stronger in the upcoming state elections, especially in the new federal states. At some point, it could even find itself in a position where it can exert direct influence. This means that the AfD is gaining in importance at both state and federal level.
Although the AfD has implemented very little in practice, its mere presence brings with it major claims on committees and committee chairs, which can have a major impact on parliamentary work. The AfD is currently pursuing a strategy that can be clearly observed in Baden-Württemberg, for example: they are deliberately aiming to disrupt and paralyze parliamentary work. With their increased number of seats, it will be even more difficult to keep them in check. The new President of the Bundestag will have to use his authority to counteract this.
The AfD will use its great popularity among the population to influence the political process. As Friedrich Merz will definitely not enter into a coalition with the AfD, the AfD is planning - just as Gauland announced at the time - to fight and destabilize Merz and his coalition whenever possible. They are hoping for new elections and a destabilization of the system, for which they will use their popularity. In this respect, the AfD will do everything it can to gain influence, even though it still has no real position of power.
More articles
01/14/2026ScienceGuest article by ZU alumnus Said D. WernerThe US economy faces an institutional test
US outlook 2026: Four areas of risk shape the economy - from fiscal policy to trade, with consequences for inflation and employment.
12/16/2025ScienceMobility cooperativesBetter to share than (not) own
Innovation researcher Matthias Weiss talks in an interview about the potential, opportunities and challenges of mobility cooperatives.- 12/08/2025ScienceApplied science
ZF and ZU jointly research fundamental issues of the future
For the second time, employees from ZU and ZF met at a symposium to present the results of their joint research projects. 
12/01/2025ScienceApplied scienceAI and VR help job center advisors practice difficult conversations
ZU students have used VR and AI to simulate job center consultations. The Friedrichshafen case managers are enthusiastic about the potential.
