Military economist Marcus Keupp on Russia's world view and Europe's strength

"Will the Westphalian principle of state equality still apply in the future - or are we back to imperial superpowers?" Dr. Marcus Keupp sets the tone for the evening with this question. For him, Russia's war against Ukraine is not just a conflict over borders, but an attack on the idea that states are fundamentally equal and can decide for themselves how they live and with whom they ally themselves. It is a question of whether "the big ones" will once again determine what "the small ones" are allowed to do.

According to Keupp, Russia is once again dividing the world into zones of influence. A neighboring country is then not an equal partner, but a sphere of influence. This also gives rise to propaganda that denies Ukraine's right to exist - along the lines of: there is an area that has declared itself independent, but actually belongs to "us".

Keupp, born in 1977, is a private lecturer in military economics at the ETH Zurich Military Academy. As a military economist, he emphasizes, he doesn't just look at who is where in a war or how quickly a front shifts. Instead, he is interested in how the war is paid for, how long a country can sustain it and what resources are consumed in the process. Anyone who only sees war as a military event does not understand it.

The perception of Russia often reminds him of the "Wizard of Oz", says Keupp - a comparison that causes laughter in the hall. In the film, the wizard first appears as a huge, terrifying figure. In the end, however, he turns out to be a small man behind a machine who only feigns his power with light, noise and effects.

This is exactly how Russia is often seen in the West: as a superpower that cannot be defeated anyway. In reality, the country is much less powerful militarily and economically than many believe. However, this does not make Russia harmless. The great danger lies in the uncompromising imperial objective: Russia is prepared to accept very high costs in order to expand its sphere of influence. "In the end, all that matters is that the Russian flag flies there," says Keupp, to put Putin's way of thinking in a nutshell.

Presenter Michelle Bleichner takes up the economic dimension of the war. Keupp impressively describes the Russian war economy. The state pools almost all available resources in the military apparatus, while the civilian economy is increasingly falling into recession.

War is no longer a state of emergency for Russia. On the contrary: "War is peace," Keupp puts it pointedly. The permanent war stabilizes Putin's political system. Even a military defeat would do little to change this: Russia would not collapse, but relapse into an increasingly primitive war economy.

Keupp therefore warns against the idea that Putin will stop at some point because the "price will be too high". "Anyone who portrays him as stupid has not understood the man," says Keupp. The Russian president acts with ideological conviction, supported by an imperial view of history. Keupp clearly summarizes what works against this: "The only thing this kind of person respects is resistance. Tough resistance."

Bleichner asks about the strategic consequences: "What is Germany's role in this new world?" Keupp is clear: for decades, security policy relied on the protection of the USA - a situation he described as "learned helplessness". This attitude is no longer sustainable today.

At the same time, he remains confident: Europe has enormous economic, technological and social resources at its disposal. What is lacking is not so much ability as political determination. Germany is a clear example of this: special assets, industry and financial strength are available. However, the will to use these consistently remains too hesitant.

His appeal: Europe must learn to actively and confidently represent its own interests in the world again. Strength is a prerequisite for stability, including in negotiations. Keupp does not see arms deliveries to Ukraine as an escalation, but as a necessary defense of Europe.